How long to smoke brisket (hours, not a recipe)

Search results want a single number. A packer does not work that way. The calculator starts from 1.5 hours plus 1.25 hours per pound on the overnight brisket profile, then scales by (225 / target temp)^0.85. Startup is a flat 0.35 lb of pellets. Probe for doneness and safety. Read the food-safety disclaimer for USDA published minimums.

Hours by weight at 225 F

Mild weather, generic 0.85 lb/hr seed, 18 lb hopper. Same profile the calculator uses for a stall-aware overnight.

• 8 lb packer at 225 F: about 11 hours 30 minutes, 10.1 lb of pellets. About 7.9 lb left. Clear on paper.
• 10 lb packer at 225 F: about 14 hours, 12.3 lb. About 5.8 lb left. Still clear, thinner margin.
• 12 lb packer at 225 F: about 16 hours 30 minutes, 14.4 lb, 0.85 lb/hr. Overnight warning. About 3.6 lb left.
• 14 lb packer at 225 F: about 19 hours, 16.5 lb. Overnight warning. About 1.5 lb left on an 18 lb hopper.
• 16 lb packer at 225 F: about 21 hours 30 minutes, 18.6 lb. Empty warning. The hopper runs dry before the estimate ends.

That is why "how long to smoke brisket" without a weight is noise. Ten pounds and sixteen pounds are different nights. How many pounds of pellets is the bag version of the same method.

Flip the dial to 250 F on the same weights

Hours drop. Burn rate rises to about 0.96 lb/hr on the generic seed. Pellets barely move, or tick up, because the hotter fire eats while the clock shortens.

• 10 lb at 250 F: about 12 hours 48 minutes, 12.7 lb.
• 12 lb at 250 F: about 15 hours 5 minutes, 14.9 lb. Still an overnight warning on an 18 lb hopper.
• 14 lb at 250 F: about 17 hours 22 minutes, 17.1 lb. Overnight warning, under 1 lb left on paper.

Side-by-side dial math lives on 225 vs 250 for brisket. If you are pushing past 250 toward a hot finish on the same overnight profile, read 225 vs 275 too.

Hopper size changes the sleep question

Listed hoppers and assumed burns live in the grill database. Same 12 lb packer at 225 F:

• Traeger Pro 575 (18 lb hopper, 0.90 lb/hr assumed): about 15.2 lb. Overnight warning.
• Recteq RT-700 (40 lb hopper, 0.80 lb/hr assumed): about 13.6 lb with roughly 26.5 lb left. Same clock, calmer bag.

Winter is the other surprise. 12 lb at 225 F in winter stays about 16 hours 30 minutes on the clock but wants about 29.8 lb at roughly 1.78 lb/hr. An 18 lb hopper goes dry. Cold-weather burn and empty hopper overnight cover why.

Stall, probe, and what this page is not

The default brisket line already tries to leave room for a stall. Extra stall hours are still extra pellet hours. The stall page is wrap versus ride-it-out. Hot-and-fast is a different protein line in the calculator, not a free shortcut on this overnight table.

No injection, no wrap ritual, no "pull at X" rule here. Plan hours from weight and set point, then check pellets and hopper margin. Use a probe. Long cooks cross a night. Food safety is probe and published minima, not the pellet estimate. The methodology writes the exponents out if you want the formula.