Your brisket stalled. That is normal. Here is the fuel math.

The short answer

When it starts: most briskets stall somewhere between about 150 and 170 F internal, often near 150 F. Moisture evaporating off the surface cools the meat about as fast as the pit heats it, which physicist Greg Blonder showed in tests written up at AmazingRibs on the barbecue stall. Texas A&M Meat Science gives the same evaporative cooling explanation.

How long it lasts: often several hours. Blonder's test brisket sat near 150 F for about 6 hours before it climbed again, and humidity, airflow, and pit temp all move that. On a Traeger Pro 575 at 225 F, every stall hour burns about 0.90 lb of pellets in mild weather and 1.89 lb in winter, so a 6 hour stall costs about 5.4 lb, or 11.3 lb in winter.

What you can do:

• Wait it out. The stall ends once the surface dries. The calculator's brisket profile already tries to leave room for it: a 12 lb packer at 225 F on the Pro 575 plans at about 16 hr 30 min and 15.2 lb of pellets, leaving about 2.8 lb in the 18 lb hopper.
• Wrap it tightly in foil or butcher paper at about 150 to 160 F, once the bark is set. Meathead's brisket recipe says foil can cut about 2 hours off the cook and butcher paper about 1, so on the Pro 575 at 225 F foil saves about 1.8 lb of pellets and paper about 0.9 lb. The wrapped and unwrapped ranges in Meathead's brisket timetable suggest the foil gap can run closer to 4 hours (our arithmetic on his numbers, about 3.6 lb of pellets).
• Raise the pit temp. A hotter pit shortens the stall, and near 300 F it may not show up at all. At 250 F the same packer plans at about 15 hr 5 min and 15.8 lb; at 275 F, about 13 hr 55 min and 16.3 lb. You buy back hours, not pellets, because the fire burns harder.

When does a brisket stall?

By the probe: once the internal temp gets to about 150 F, give or take, the climb slows, flattens, and can even drop a few degrees. By the clock, it depends on the meat and the cooker. Blonder's test brisket started stalling after about two to three hours. Meathead's whole packer recipe at 225 F puts it at 150 to 165 F after about 6 to 8 hours of smoking.

For the 12 lb packer worked out below, with the meat on Friday 10:00 PM for a Saturday dinner, 6 to 8 hours in is about Saturday 4:00 AM to Saturday 6:00 AM. On an overnight cook like this one, the stall likely starts while you are asleep, which is why the hopper matters more than the stall itself. Fill it before bed and check both when you get up.

How long does a brisket stall last?

Hours, not minutes. Blonder's test brisket held near 150 F for about 6 hours, and AmazingRibs is clear that your curve will differ. What stretches it: humidity, a water pan, and spritzing or mopping, which cools the surface and gives it more water to evaporate. What shortens it: a hotter pit (near 300 F there may be no stall at all) and wrapping tightly. AmazingRibs also notes that the fan in a pellet grill speeds evaporation, so the stall there can be shorter. If you wrap and it stalls again, Blonder's usual suspect is a gap in the wrap letting moisture out.

What temp does a brisket stall at?

About 150 to 170 F internal, measured in the meat, not on the grill display. The exact number moves with humidity, airflow (more airflow, lower stall temp), the cut, and how accurate your thermometer is. The probe also reads deep inside, while the cooling happens at the surface. In Blonder's test, a bowl of water in a 225 F oven stalled at 160 F, close to where meat stalls in a 225 F smoker.

The stall temp is not a doneness temp. Texas A&M Meat Science puts collagen to gelatin conversion at about 185 to 195 F internal, so a brisket has a long way to go after it breaks out. Meathead's recipe moves it to the hold at 195 to 205 F, when it jiggles and probes tender.

Wrap or ride it out: a worked 12 lb packer

Same brisket three ways on a Traeger Pro 575 with its 18 lb hopper, at 225 F, served Saturday at 6:00 PM with the start time planner's defaults: a 2 hour rest, a 90 minute cushion for a slow cook, and a 15 minute preheat (30 in winter). The ride it out column is the planner and calculator as they are. The paper and foil columns take Meathead's quoted savings off that cook: about 1 hour for paper and 2 for foil, from Meathead's brisket timetable. Those hours are his estimate, not something PelletDeck models. Pellets, refills, and clock times follow from them at the same burn rate.

What it says: in mild weather the hopper covers all three, and foil saves about 1.8 lb of pellets and lets the meat go on 2 hours later. In winter the burn rate more than doubles, so riding it out costs about 31.5 lb and every column still needs a refill. Wrapping saves pellets, not the trip to the hopper. Bags are counted against the pellets plus the cushion, the same way the bags to buy calculator counts them.

About the later start: the stall varies by hours from one brisket to the next, so a start time planned around a wrap leaves only the 90 minute cushion if it runs long. Planning the ride it out start and wrapping anyway is the safer bet. If it finishes early, the extra time becomes a longer hold, and Meathead's recipe says 1 to 4 hours held in the wrap keeps tenderizing it. Open the ride it out plan in the planner: mild or winter.

What the calculator assumes

The stall temp is a range, not a PelletDeck rule and not a doneness target. The clock is why overnight cooks miss the hopper, not because the stall is mysterious. PelletDeck does not decide when the stall ends. The calculator estimates hours and pellets. The default brisket profile already tries to leave room for a stall. A 12 lb packer at 225 F is about 16 hours 30 minutes and about 14.4 lb on the generic seed. Open that ride-it-out scenario.

Wrap versus ride it out is an hours change

The calculator and planner have no wrap toggle; the table above applies the quoted savings by hand. Wrapping usually shortens the evaporative window, so the cook finishes sooner and the pellet load drops. Riding it out keeps the long overnight assumption. In the tools, you model the difference by changing the inputs that actually exist: set point, or the hot-and-fast brisket profile.

Keep the same 12 lb packer and only flip the dial to 250 F. Hours fall to about 15 hours 5 minutes. Pellets on the generic seed go to about 14.9 lb because the fire is working harder. Same packer at 250 F.

If you are treating wrap plus a hotter cook as a different job, use the hot-and-fast brisket protein. A 12 lb cook at 275 F on that profile is about 6 hours 24 minutes and about 7.3 lb. Open hot-and-fast brisket at 275 F. Texture and bark will not match a 225 F overnight. That is the trade you are buying, not a free hopper save.

225 vs 250 and 225 vs 275 are the setpoint comparisons with the overnight profile held still. Use those when you are only turning the knob. Use this page when the question is "do I wrap or sit here until 4 a.m." How long to smoke brisket is the weight ladder. Still deciding how big a packer to buy? The meat per person calculator turns a guest count into packer pounds.

Hopper risk while it sits

A stall does not burn extra pellets by magic. It burns them by adding time at the same set point. If you were already near empty on paper, those extra hours are the refill.

A 14 lb packer on a Pro 575 at 225 F is about 19 hours and about 17.5 lb against an 18 lb hopper. Ride the stall in January and it gets worse. Same cook with the winter toggle wants about 36.3 lb. The fire dies because the tank is empty, not because the stall "won."

A 40 lb hopper changes the sleep math more than a wrap debate does. The same 12 lb, 225 F cook on an RT-700 (legacy / discontinued) still takes all night. It does not take the whole hopper. Compare listed hopper sizes in the grill database.

What this page will not tell you

PelletDeck will not tell you when the brisket is safe or tender. Color, stall time, and a PelletDeck hour estimate are not doneness. Use a probe. Official safe minimum internals live on the food-safety disclaimer, which points at USDA / FSIS charts. Brisket is often cooked past those published minimums for texture. That is a tenderness choice after you have already passed the safety line. It is not a PelletDeck pull temp.

If you came here asking how many pounds the whole cook needs, start with how many pounds of pellets. The methodology page has the exact exponents.