How much BBQ meat to buy per person

Worked example: brisket for 20 people

Twenty adults, one main meat with a few sides (the normal setting), no leftover buffer. These numbers come from the same code as the calculator above.

1. Cooked meat: 20 adults × 0.5 lb = 10.0 lb of cooked brisket.
2. Raw weight: 10.0 lb ÷ 50% yield = 20.0 lb. Rounded up to the next whole pound, that is 20 lb of untrimmed packer.
3. Count: 20.0 lb ÷ 12 lb per packer = 1.67, rounded up to 2 packer briskets, about 10 lb each.
4. Pellets: the packers cook side by side, so the fuel math is one 10 lb packer at 225 F. 10 lb packer at 225 F is about 14 hr and 12.3 lb of pellets on the generic 0.85 lb/hr seed in mild weather.

Tick the 15% leftovers box and the same party wants 11.5 lb cooked and 23 lb raw, which is still 2 packer briskets. If you want the brisket clock by weight, read how long to smoke brisket and the brisket stall.

How we calculate this

Three steps, in this order:

1. Cooked meat = (adults + kids × 0.5) × cooked pounds per adult. The leftovers box multiplies that by 1.15.
2. Raw weight = cooked meat ÷ cooked yield for that cut. We round the buy weight up to the next whole pound, because running out is worse than leftovers. Thighs are the one exception: their buy weight is the thigh count × 6 oz, rounded up to the next quarter pound.
3. Count = raw weight before rounding up ÷ a typical piece weight, rounded up to a whole piece.

Cooked meat per adult

• Light: 1/3 lb. Normal: 1/2 lb. Hearty: 2/3 lb. Sonny's BBQ plans 1/3 to 1/2 lb of cooked meat per person for a standard serving and 2/3 lb for a big-eater crowd. We use the low end for light, the high end for normal, and their big-eater number for hearty. Meathead at AmazingRibs puts his headline rule in raw weight: "1/2 pound of raw weight of meat per person", going up to "1 full pound per person" for a crowd of big eaters. His serving list says 8 ounces of meat per person with one main dish and 6 ounces with two or more. Our normal setting (1/2 lb cooked, which is about 1.0 lb of raw brisket or 0.83 lb of raw pork butt) sits at the upper end of his raw range. Sources: Sonny's BBQ catering portion guide, AmazingRibs (Meathead), party planning.
• Kids count as 50% of an adult portion. Sonny's suggests about half a portion of meat per child. Source: Sonny's BBQ catering portion guide.
• The leftovers box adds 15%. Sonny's says to add 10 to 15% to the order. We use the top of that range. Source: Sonny's BBQ catering portion guide.

Cooked yield (cooked meat you serve ÷ raw weight you buy)

• Brisket, whole untrimmed packer: 50%. Sources disagree a lot. Aaron Franklin says a 15 lb brisket yields about 5 lb after trim and cook (about 33%, at his restaurant). USDA's Food Buying Guide lists 0.46 lb of cooked lean meat per pound of boneless brisket that is already trimmed to 1/4 inch (46%). Sonny's says a raw 10 lb brisket yields about 6 to 7 lb cooked (60 to 70%). Meathead's brisket recipe says separating and trimming most of the fat from a 13 lb packer leaves about 9 lb of flat and point. With the general 20% cooking shrink from his party planning page, that works out to about 55%. We use 50%, near the middle of that spread and close to the USDA figure. Sources: Aaron Franklin interview, AndrewZimmern.com, USDA Food Buying Guide, Section 1 Meats yield table (2018 PDF, copy hosted by NC DPI), Sonny's BBQ catering portion guide, AmazingRibs (Meathead), Texas brisket recipe, AmazingRibs (Meathead), party planning.
• Pork butt, bone-in: 60%. USDA lists 0.52 lb of cooked, boned, trimmed lean meat per pound of bone-in Boston butt (52%). Meathead says to count on about 30% loss for pulled pork (about 70%). We use 60%, the middle of those two, rounded down. Sources: USDA Food Buying Guide, Section 1 Meats yield table (2018 PDF, copy hosted by NC DPI), AmazingRibs (Meathead), pulled pork recipe.
• Spare ribs and baby backs: 45% (meat off the bone). USDA lists 0.39 lb of cooked lean meat per pound of spareribs (39%). Meathead's pork cuts page says about half of a slab is bone, which with his general 20% cooking shrink works out to about 40%. His party planning page uses 30% bone plus 20% shrink, which works out to about 56%. We use 45%, a little under the middle, because two of the three figures sit near 40%. Sources: USDA Food Buying Guide, Section 1 Meats yield table (2018 PDF, copy hosted by NC DPI), AmazingRibs (Meathead), pork cuts explained, AmazingRibs (Meathead), party planning.
• Whole chicken: 44%. Bone-in, skin-on thighs: 52%. Both are USDA Food Buying Guide numbers for cooked meat and skin off the bone (whole bird without neck and giblets). The 52% thigh row is for thighs of about 4 oz without the back attached. USDA's row for thighs with the back on (about 8.7 oz each) is 42%. We did not find a second chicken yield source we trust for smoked birds, so these are USDA's figures as published. Source: USDA Food Buying Guide, Section 1 Meats yield table (2018 PDF, copy hosted by NC DPI).

The USDA Food Buying Guide is written for school meals and counts cooked lean meat without bone. A BBQ plate usually keeps some fat and bark, so for pork, ribs, and chicken, treat the USDA numbers as the low end. Brisket is different: USDA starts from brisket already trimmed to 1/4 inch, and Franklin's figure from a whole packer is lower. The USDA Food Buying Guide overview explains how the yields are defined.

Typical piece weights (for the count only)

• Packer brisket: 12 lb, the middle of Meathead's 8 to 16 lb range. Source: AmazingRibs (Meathead), Texas brisket recipe.
• Pork butt: 6.5 lb, the middle of Meathead's 5 to 8 lb range. Source: AmazingRibs (Meathead), pulled pork recipe.
• St. Louis spare ribs: 2.5 lb per rack, the middle of Meathead's 2 to 3 lb slab. Baby backs: 2 lb per rack ("usually about 2 pounds per slab"). Full spares with the tips on run 2.5 to 3.5 lb, so you would need slightly fewer racks. Source: AmazingRibs (Meathead), pork cuts explained.
• Whole chicken: 3.5 lb, the middle of the USDA broiler-fryer range of 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 lb. Thighs: about 6 oz, the middle of the 4 to 8 oz USDA lists for legs or thighs. Source: USDA FSIS, Chicken from Farm to Table.

This is a planning estimate, not a promise. Trim style, grade, wrap, and how hard you render all move yield. Weigh your own cooks and you will know your number. Doneness and safety are a probe question. The food-safety disclaimer lists the USDA minimums, including 165 F for poultry.

Questions people ask

How much brisket per person, cooked and raw?

Plan 1/2 lb of cooked brisket per adult when it is the main meat, or 1/3 lb with lots of sides. At a 50% yield that is about 1.00 lb of raw untrimmed packer per adult, or 0.67 lb on the light setting. In short, about 1 lb raw becomes about 1/2 lb on the plate.

How much pulled pork per person?

Sonny's BBQ says a good rule for pulled pork is 1/3 lb per person. We use 1/2 lb on the normal setting and 1/3 lb on light. At a 60% yield that is about 0.56 to 0.83 lb of raw bone-in butt per adult. For fuel, see pellets for pork shoulder.

How much pulled pork for 50 people?

On the normal setting, 50 adults eat about 25.0 lb of cooked meat. As pulled pork, that is 42 lb of bone-in butt, or about 7 bone-in pork butts. As brisket, it is 50 lb raw, or about 5 packer briskets. With plenty of sides (the light setting) it drops to 16.7 lb cooked: 34 lb of brisket or 28 lb of pork butt. Serving two meats? Split the cooked total between them and run each one through the calculator.

How many ribs per person?

On the normal setting, one adult works out to about 0.56 of a 2 lb rack of baby backs (roughly 6 to 7 bones on an 11 to 13 bone slab), or 0.44 of a 2.5 lb St. Louis rack (roughly 4 to 6 bones on a 10 to 13 bone slab). Meathead says a slab of spares can usually feed two. Sonny's rule is 3 to 4 ribs per person on a bigger spread and 5 to 6 when ribs are the main event, so our normal setting runs a little generous on baby backs. Pick light if ribs share the table with another meat. Sources: AmazingRibs (Meathead), pork cuts explained, Sonny's BBQ catering portion guide. Rib hours are on how long to smoke ribs.

Do kids count as a full person?

Not here. Each kid counts as half an adult portion, following Sonny's guide. If the teens at your table eat like adults, put them in the adults box.

Got the meat sorted? The pellet calculator handles cook hours, pellet pounds, and whether the hopper makes it through the night.