Calculator methodology

Cook hours

Each protein has a fixed hours term plus an hours-per-pound term. That sum is scaled toward the usual 225 F smoke:

cookHours = (fixedHours + hoursPerLb × weightLbs) × (225 / targetTempF) ^0.85

Higher set points shorten the clock, but not 1:1. Collagen and stalls do not care about a clean inverse. Ribs and wings lean on the fixed term because weight hardly moves those cooks.

Pellet pounds

A model (or your generic slider) starts with an assumed burn rate at 225 F. Default generic is 0.85 lb/hr. Then:

burnLbPerHour = baseBurn × (targetTempF / 225)^1.2 × ambientMultiplier

pelletLbs = 0.35 + cookHours × burnLbPerHour

The 0.35 lb startup pad covers ignition. Leave the lid open and you will beat it.

Ambient multipliers

Mild is 1.0x. Cool is 1.25x. Cold is 1.55x. Winter / sub-freezing is 2.1x.

Those are community-typical ranges, not wind-tunnel data. A cheap gasket in a 20 mph gust can outrun winter. A heavy, tight grill in a garage can undershoot it.

Hopper warning

If estimated pellets meet or beat hopper size, the cook empties the hopper on paper. If pellets are at least 85% of hopper size, you get a refill warning. If the cook is 8 hours or longer and fewer than 4 lb would remain, you get an overnight empty warning.

What this will not do

It will not tell you when meat is safe. It will not model your exact fire pot, pellet brand, or the neighbor's wind tunnel. It will not invent lab-test burn rates for Traeger, Pit Boss, Recteq, or Camp Chef. Model rates in the grill database are labeled assumptions so the calculator has a starting point.